https://lorenzmeister.com Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher Mon, 24 Jul 2023 16:33:32 +0000 https://lorenzmeister.com en https://lorenzmeister.com/Research Fri, 31 Mar 2023 09:37:46 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/Research JOB MARKET PAPER Populism and Narratives of Social Mobility single authored &nbsp; Abstract This paper studies whether low social mobility increases populist sentiment, and whether the relevant channel is pessimism about mobility rates or erosion of the belief that economic success reflects effort. I combine original survey and experimental data from 6,600 U.S. residents with local measures of intergenerational mobility and electoral outcomes. I first document that areas with lower social mobility exhibit higher populist attitudes and greater support for Donald Trump. Respondents in low-mobility areas also perceive national mobility to be lower. Moreover, LLM-based analysis of upward-mobility narratives shows that those who perceive mobility to be low are more likely to view upward mobility as driven by luck rather than effort. To distinguish between these channels, I field two pre-registered survey experiments. Shifting beliefs about the level of social mobility has no detectable effect on populist attitudes. By contrast, weakening beliefs that upward mobility is effort-based significantly increases populist attitudes, especially among men, non-college respondents, and individuals without personal upward-mobility experience. The results suggest that low social mobility fuels populism less through beliefs about how much opportunity exists than through beliefs about whether economic advancement is meritocratic. &nbsp;&nbsp; PUBLICATIONS Restrictions to Civil Liberties in a Pandemic and Satisfaction with Democracy with Daniel Graeber and Panu Poutvaara European Journal of Political Economy &nbsp; Abstract In times of crises, democracies face the challenge of balancing effective interventions with civil liberties. This study examines Germany's response during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the interplay between civil liberties and public health goals. Using state-level variation in mobility restrictions, we employ a difference-in-differences design to show that stay-at-home orders notably increased satisfaction with democracy and shifted political support towards centrist parties. Individuals who were exposed to the authoritarian regime of the German Democratic Republic show the largest reactions, underscoring the endogeneity of preferences for state intervention. &nbsp; Stock Market Participation, Work from Home, and Inequality with Lukas Menkhoff and Carsten Schröder International Review of Financial Analysis &nbsp; Abstract Stock market participation among working household heads jumped upwards in the year 2020, in Germany by about 25%. A major cause is the required use of work from home (WfH). We show this by repeating a benchmark study with demanding data requests and adding WfH to the explanatory variables. Moreover, we implement an instrumental variables estimation based on industry-specific levels of WfH-capacity. The transmission channels seem to work via increased available time and time flexibility. Moreover, we show that WfH makes the stock market accessible to a broader population, including lower income groups, which may contribute to lower income inequality. &nbsp; WORKING PAPERS Who Pays for Climate Policy? Distributional Narratives and Populist Backlash with Matilda Gettins &nbsp; Abstract Populist parties increasingly deploy narratives of social injustice to portray climate policy as elitist and unfair. This paper investigates how such narratives affect public attitudes toward populism and democratic institutions. We conduct a survey experiment with approximately 1,600 respondents in Germany, exposing participants to three common narratives about the distributional costs of climate policy. Our findings show that the narrative emphasizing disproportionate burdens on low-income households significantly increases climate-populist attitudes and reduces satisfaction with democracy. These effects are particularly pronounced among low-income, East German, and conservative voters. By contrast, the narrative that companies can circumvent the cost of climate action fosters climate populism among left-leaning individuals. The results suggest that the framing of climate policy distribution strongly shapes its political acceptance and vulnerability to populist mobilization. Random Forests for Labor Market Analysis: Balancing Precision and Interpretability with Daniel Graeber, Carsten Schröder and Sabine Zinn &nbsp; Abstract Machine learning methods are becoming increasingly popular due to their predictive power. However, the results are sometimes not as straight-forward to interpret compared to classic regression models, for example. In this paper, we address this trade-off by comparing the predictive performance of random forests and logistic regressions to analyze labor market vulnerabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a global surrogate model to enhance our understanding of the complex dynamics. Our study shows that especially in the presence of non-linearities and feature interactions, random forests outperform regressions both in predictive accuracy and interpretability, yielding policy-relevant insights on vulnerable groups affected by labor market disruptions. &nbsp; WORK IN PROGRESS Risk Aversion in the Shadow of Terror [draft available upon request] with Daniel Graeber and Neil Murray &nbsp; Abstract Economic literature documents that terrorist attacks generate economic effects that far exceed their immediate physical damage, yet the mechanisms behind this disparity remain poorly understood. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database combined with geocoded individual-level measures of risk preferences, we employ a difference-in-differences design comparing individuals living within and outside 25 kilometers of an attack. We find that terrorist attacks induce an immediate and significant decline in risk tolerance among nearby individuals. Leveraging machine learning to classify more than 60,000 news articles, we show that these effects vary systematically with media reporting: Effects are largest for negatively framed and high-coverage attacks. Consistent with changes in risk preferences, we document reductions in risky behaviors such as self-employment and stock market participation. Analysis of mechanisms further indicates that emotions partly explain the observed effects. These results imply that shifts in risk preferences—transmitted primarily through media exposure—contribute substantially to the broader economic costs of terrorism. https://lorenzmeister.com/Policy-Work Fri, 31 Mar 2023 11:46:56 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/Policy-Work REPORTS Narratives on the Distributional Impact of Climate Policy Can Fuel Populism DIW (2025), Weekly Report no. 39 / 2025, Berlin &nbsp; Abstract Populist parties use narratives about social injustice to portray climate policy as elite-driven and socially unjust. This study—based on a survey experiment with some 1,600 participants—examines how three common narratives about the costs associated with climate policy affect populist and climate-populist attitudes. The results show that the narrative highlighting the disproportionate burden on low-income households fuels climate-populist attitudes and undermines trust in democracy. This effect is particularly pronounced among women and low-income households as well as east German and conservative voter segments. The narrative portraying climate policy as harmful to the German economy, on the other hand, resonates most strongly with right-leaning voters, while the narrative claiming that businesses are failing to accept responsibility was found to fuel climate-populist attitudes primarily among male, east German, and left-leaning voters. Overall, the impact of narratives depends on a person’s individual circumstances and prior political experiences. Socially just and transparently communicated policies, however, can enhance public support for climate policy and help prevent populist exploitation. Economic Determinants of Populism DIW (2023), Roundup no. 145 / 2023, Berlin. &nbsp; Abstract The rise of populism challenges numerous Western democracies and their institutions. In this round-up, we examine economic and societal conditions that are driving forces behind populism. We focus on five domains that are closely interlinked with populist support: globalization, financial crises, migration, inequality, and social mobility. Each domain offers unique insights into how societal shifts, economic disruptions, and perceived injustices can fuel anti-establishment sentiments. As these factors collectively shape the political landscape, understanding their interplay becomes crucial in devising strategies to sustain and strengthen the stability of democracies and institutions. Chinese Loans to African Countries Differ from Western Development Loans DIW (2023), Weekly Report no. 26: 353 - 361, Berlin.&nbsp; &nbsp; Abstract Over the past 20 years, China has granted a conspicuous amount of loans to African countries. New loan data show that compared to Western multilateral loans, Chinese loans have relatively high interest rates and shorter maturities, tend to be highly collateralized, and are volatile over time. Thus, Western loans are generally more likely to be in the economic interest of the borrowing country. Furthermore, Chinese loans are focused on resource-rich countries that undertake fewer anti-corruption efforts, so local policymakers have more opportunities to feather their own nest. Finally, unlike Western loans, Chinese loans are not tied to any economic policy conditions. It seems worth considering for Western lenders to reduce the number and intensity of loan conditions to respect the sovereignty of the borrowing countries. Working from Home Facilitates Stock Ownership DIW (2023), Weekly Report no. 13: 151 - 157, Berlin. &nbsp; Abstract In 2020, there were simultaneous increases in the number of private persons participating on the stock market as well as in the number of employees working from home. Indeed, working from home is a robust determinant of stock ownership and partially explains the increase in 2020, with households without children benefiting the most in this manner. Furthermore, the effect of working from home on stock ownership is largest for low-income earners. Thus, working more from home has complex distributional consequences: It tends to expand the stock owner base by, in a broader sense, decreasing the stock market participation cost. While economic policy should not mandate working from home for the sole purpose of increasing stock ownership, it can facilitate stock market participation in other ways, such as by improving financial education. How Shocks Affect Stock Market Participation DIW (2022), Roundup no. 142 / 2022, Berlin. &nbsp; Abstract While there is a broad consensus in the literature that stock ownership is associated with individual characteristics, such as wealth, income, risk preferences, and financial literacy, less is known about the dynamics of stock market participation (SMP). Major fluctuations in SMP are oftentimes related to political events, economic shocks, and technological disruptions. We discuss the literature that investigates some of these shocks, as well as personal life circumstances that determine SMP across various demographic groups. Consolidating the literature allows us to identify systematic drivers into and out of stock ownership, along with its distributional consequences. Major forces behind SMP fluctuations are changes in participation costs and benefits, risk exposure, economic policy uncertainty, income uncertainty, peer effects, and windfall gains. &nbsp; REPORTS (GERMAN) Narrative zur Verteilungswirkung von Klimapolitik könnten Populismus stärken DIW (2025), Wochenbericht Nr. 39 / 2025, Berlin. &nbsp; Kurzfassung Populistische Parteien nutzen Narrative über soziale Ungerechtigkeit, um Klimapolitik als von Eliten getrieben und unsozial darzustellen. Wie sich drei verbreitete Narrative über die mit klimapolitischen Maßnahmen verbundenen Kosten auf populistische und klimapopulistische Einstellungen auswirken, wird anhand eines Umfrageexperiments mit rund 1600 Personen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass insbesondere das Narrativ, wonach einkommensschwache Haushalte überproportional belastet werden, klimapopulistische Haltungen verstärkt und die Zufriedenheit mit Demokratie senkt. Dies gilt vor allem unter Frauen und in einkommensschwachen, ostdeutschen und konservativen Wähler*innengruppen. Das Narrativ, wonach Unternehmen keine Verantwortung übernehmen, verstärkt vor allem unter Männern und in ostdeutschen und linken Wähler*innengruppen klimapopulistische Einstellungen. Das Narrativ, wonach Klimapolitik die deutsche Volkswirtschaft belastet, wirkt vor allem in der rechten Wählerschaft. Narrative entfalten sich damit im Kontext individueller Lebenslagen und politischer Vorerfahrungen. Eine sozial ausgewogene und transparent kommunizierte Klimapolitik kann die gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz für Klimapolitik stärken und klimapopulistischer Vereinnahmung entgegenwirken. Populismus: Warum es Grund zur Hoffnung gibt (Kommentar) DIW (2023), Wochenbericht Nr. 44: 622, Berlin. &nbsp; Kurzfassung Dass Populismus global auf dem Vormarsch ist, scheinen die Wahlen in Argentinien und der Schweiz jüngst zu bestätigen. Doch es gibt auch andere Tendenzen, die Hoffnung machen: In Polen hat sich die Wählerschaft mehrheitlich gegen die rechtspopulistische Regierungspartei PiS ausgesprochen. Wie ist der weltweite Vormarsch des Populismus zu erklären? Vor allem die ökonomischen Ursachen sind mittlerweile gut erforscht. Kennt man erstmal die Ursachen, kann man sie in der Regel bekämpfen. Chinesische Kredite nach Afrika unterscheiden sich von westlichen Entwicklungskrediten DIW (2023), Wochenbericht Nr. 26: 353 - 361, Berlin. &nbsp; Kurzfassung China hat in den letzten 20 Jahren auffällig viele Kredite an afrikanische Länder vergeben. Neue Kreditdaten zeigen, dass chinesische Kredite im Vergleich zu westlichen, multilateralen Krediten relativ teuer, nicht so langfristig, tendenziell stärker besichert und bezogen auf die Volumina im Zeitverlauf volatiler sind. Damit dürften westliche Kredite im Allgemeinen eher im volkswirtschaftlichen Interesse der Schuldner liegen. Ferner zielen chinesische Kredite auf rohstoffreiche Länder, die weniger gegen Korruption unternehmen, sodass es mehr Bereicherungsmöglichkeiten für lokale Entscheidungsträger*innen gibt. Schließlich punktet China, im Gegensatz zur westlichen Kreditvergabe, mit Krediten ohne wirtschaftspolitische Auflagen. Es scheint für westliche Geber überlegenswert, die Zahl und Eingriffsintensität von Kreditkonditionen zu reduzieren, um so der Souveränität anderer Länder Rechnung zu tragen. Homeoffice erleichtert Einstieg in den Aktienmarkt DIW (2023), Wochenbericht Nr. 13: 151 - 157, Berlin. &nbsp; Kurzfassung Das Jahr 2020 war durch eine sprunghafte Zunahme der Teilnahme von Privatpersonen am Aktienmarkt gekennzeichnet. Parallel waren auch deutlich mehr Erwerbstätige im Homeoffice. Tatsächlich ist die Nutzung von Homeoffice eine robuste Bestimmungsgröße für Aktienbesitz und erklärt einen Teil des Anstiegs im Jahr 2020. Vom Homeoffice profitieren in dieser Hinsicht vor allem Personen ohne Kinder im Haushalt. Ferner kommt es gerade auch bei einkommensschwächeren Personen im Homeoffice zu einem höheren Anteil von Aktienbesitz. Das stärker genutzte Homeoffice hat damit auch komplexe verteilungspolitische Folgen. Tendenziell verbreitert es die Basis des Aktienbesitzes durch – im weiteren Sinn – sinkende Kosten der Teilnahme am Aktienmarkt. Natürlich sollte die Wirtschaftspolitik nicht Homeoffice verordnen, um den Aktienbesitz zu steigern, aber sie kann den Einstieg in den Aktienmarkt auf andere Weise erleichtern, insbesondere durch bessere finanzielle Bildung. &nbsp; https://lorenzmeister.com/Teaching Fri, 31 Mar 2023 09:37:47 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/Teaching 2022–2023 Humboldt University of Berlin Selected Topics of Emerging Markets Graduate seminar Syllabus Course website 2021–2022 Hertie School Economics I: Microeconomic Theory Graduate tutorial Syllabus Course website Economics II: Economic Growth and Climate Change Graduate tutorial Syllabus Course website 2017–2018 Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Mathematics for Economists Undergraduate tutorialCourse website https://lorenzmeister.com/Events Tue, 13 Jun 2023 21:22:03 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/Events 2026 (incl. scheduled) Meeting of the&nbsp;European Public Choice Society, MadridInterdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research, Nottingham Lecture Series on the Climate Crisis, University of Hamburg European University Institute Economics PhD Workshop, EUI Florence International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Brussels Atkinson Conference on Economic and Social Inequality, Oxford 2025 American Economic Association Meetings, San FranciscoPolitical Economy Lunch Seminar, Hertie School BerlinQuantitative Political Economy Workshop, King’s College London STATA Conference in Applied Econometrics, MarseilleGraduate Workshop in Economics, Paris School of Economics Applied Economics Lunch Seminar, Paris School of Economics Workshop on the Economics of Risky Behavior, Madrid RFBerlin Brown Bag Seminar, Rockwool Foundation Berlin New Directions in Inequality Research, London School of Economics The Future of Democracy? 1st Annual Interdisciplinary WZB Conference, Berlin Leibniz im Bundestag, German Federal Parliament 2024Political Economy Research Workshop, Harvard Graduate Student Political Economy Workshop, Harvard Leibniz im Bundestag, German Federal Parliament DESA Development Policy Seminar at the United Nations, New York City Work and Family Researchers Network, MontréalCongress of the International Institute of Public Finance, PragueAnnual Meeting of the German Economic Association, BerlinSummer School on Microeconometric Analysis, University of Warsaw 2023 Conference of the&nbsp;International Finance and Banking Society, Oxford Conference of the&nbsp;European Society for Population Economics, Belgrade Meeting of the&nbsp;European Public Choice Society, Hanover Summer School on Institutions and Media, Aix-Marseille School of Economics Berlin Behavioral Economics Colloquium, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin SOEP Brown Bag Seminar, DIW Berlin Behavioral Economics Seminar Series, Berlin Social Science Center 2022 Summer School on Public Policy Evaluation, Paris School of Economics DIW Graduate Center Summer Workshop, Potsdam Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomik Jahrestagung, Hamburg Cluster Seminar in Public Economics, DIW Berlin https://lorenzmeister.com/Press Fri, 31 Mar 2023 11:47:04 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/Press OP-EDs Homeoffice stärkt die Aktienmarktkultur Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Gastbeitrag mit Lukas Menkhoff, 2026. Faire Klimapolitik schützt vor Populismus DIE ZEIT, Gastbeitrag mit Marcel Fratzscher, 2025. Der Populismus braucht ein emotionales Feindbild Focus online, Gastbeitrag, 2023. ARTICLES Vermeintlich ungerechte Klimapolitik nützt Populisten Tagesspiegel, Artikel, 2025. Warum sich afrikanische Länder gern von China Geld leihen Die Presse, Artikel, 2023. DIW kritisiert Schuldenpolitik in Afrika Table Media, Artikel, 2023. Wieso im Pandemiejahr 2020 mehr Menschen Aktionäre wurden Handelsblatt, Artikel, 2023. Homeoffice sorgt für mehr Aktionäre FOCUS Magazin, Artikel, 2023. PODCASTS Klimapopulismus: Ist Klimaschutz nur elitär und teuer? SWR Aktuell Global, Sendung mit Margareta Holzreiter, 2026. Narrative zu Verteilungsaspekten von Klimapolitik Der Wochenbericht, Podcast mit Erich Wittenberg, 2025. China vergibt vor allem Kredite an rohstoffreiche Länder Der Wochenbericht, Podcast mit Erich Wittenberg, 2023. VIDEOS Rohstoffe gegen Kredite? China in Afrika DIW Berlin, Interview mit Anne Tilkorn, 2023. Mehr Homeoffice = mehr Aktien? DIW Berlin, Interview mit Anne Tilkorn, 2023. https://lorenzmeister.com/CV Mon, 24 Jul 2023 16:33:32 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/CV You can download my CV here. <img width="4160" height="6240" width_o="4160" height_o="6240" data-src="https://freight.cargo.site/t/original/i/11db15a0de1b3693988a006ecd3f85aaa824057baaa79983560861432128fea9/DSCF3429.jpeg" data-mid="234795049" border="0" data-scale="74" src="https://freight.cargo.site/w/1000/i/11db15a0de1b3693988a006ecd3f85aaa824057baaa79983560861432128fea9/DSCF3429.jpeg" /> https://lorenzmeister.com/Berlin Fri, 31 Mar 2023 20:26:36 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/Berlin ART SCHINKEL PAVILLON KÖNIG GALERIEC|O BERLIN KINDL HAMBURGER BAHNHOF LISTEN &amp; DANCE ARKAODA SAMEHEADS DONAU115 ELSE LIDO CINEMAS WOLF NEUES OFF PASSAGE BABYLON MOVIEMENTO BOOKSTORES SHE SAID BUCHKÖNIGIN BÜCHERBOGEN DIE GUTE SEITE BUCH BUND MARKETS WINTERFELDT KRANOLD SCHILLER MARKTHALLE NEUN TRÖDEL MARKT FOOD OTTO HANUMAN THAI CURRY HOUSE BARRAITA BISTRO FRIEDA SCHLAMASSEL BAKERIES TAKTILLE BROTALBATROSSGORILLA JOHANN ICE CREAM ZAGARA DUO EISDERIXVANILLE MARILLE JONES COFFEE KATIE’S BLUE CATTISCHENDORF KETORI COFFEE BONANZA K-FETISCH DRINKS BÜRKNER ECK VIN AQUA VIN SPUMANTE LE BALTO MONARCH https://lorenzmeister.com/Homepage Fri, 31 Mar 2023 09:37:47 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/Homepage <img width="2566" height="3848" width_o="2566" height_o="3848" data-src="https://freight.cargo.site/t/original/i/230ca85f1cc07696dee72ac2b59a781501b0ce8f95bfc3df33c6859a91273cf3/DSCF3491.jpeg" data-mid="238084585" border="0" src="https://freight.cargo.site/w/1000/i/230ca85f1cc07696dee72ac2b59a781501b0ce8f95bfc3df33c6859a91273cf3/DSCF3491.jpeg" /> Welcome! I am a research associate and PhD candidate in Economics at DIW Berlin and Free University Berlin. My research centers on political economy, with a particular focus on populism, inequality, and social mobility. I was on the 2025/2026 job market. During my PhD, I have been a Visiting Fellow at the&nbsp;World Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics (2025), Harvard’s Opportunity Insights Lab (2024), and the Department of Political Economy at King’s College London (2023). I have also contributed to policy work at DIW, the OECD, and the United Nations. If you are a researcher, student, journalist, or simply interested in exchanging ideas, feel free to get in touch.&nbsp; https://lorenzmeister.com/Contact Fri, 31 Mar 2023 09:37:48 +0000 Lorenz Meister | Economics Researcher https://lorenzmeister.com/Contact <img width="2766" height="4149" width_o="2766" height_o="4149" data-src="https://freight.cargo.site/t/original/i/f53c56263b69753c0cc7aea4e226e5ce6f8a9ebe806eb48c5652e120faf751e9/DSCF3433.jpeg" data-mid="246320902" border="0" src="https://freight.cargo.site/w/1000/i/f53c56263b69753c0cc7aea4e226e5ce6f8a9ebe806eb48c5652e120faf751e9/DSCF3433.jpeg" /> Lorenz MeisterDIW BerlinSocio-Economic Panel&nbsp; Anton-Wilhelm-Amo-Str. 5810117 Berlin, GermanyPhone: +49 30 89789 - 323Email: lmeister@diw.dewww.lorenzmeister.comwww.diw.de ︎